Assumption Olympics: Why I Always Win Gold in Overreacting

By Hannah Baker

Dear Reader,

I once pitched a new workshop format to a team of collaborators. One person nodded slowly and said,

That was it.

I smiled. Externally, totally composed.

Internally? I sprinted up a mental staircase of conclusions:

• They don’t like it.
• They’re being polite.
• They think I’m not strategic.
• This was a bad idea.
• I’ve blown this opportunity.
• Maybe I’m not cut out for this work.

I didn’t realize I was inventing this story in real time.

It felt like the truth. Like intuition.

Like I’d read between the lines.

Spoiler: I had not.

They were distracted. Thinking through logistics.

They actually loved the idea.

What actually happened?

I climbed the Ladder of Inference.

This is a concept developed by organizational psychologist Chris Argyris at Harvard.

He used it to explain how smart people can make very flawed decisions, especially under pressure.

Here’s the ladder:

1. Observable data – Someone says “Hmm… okay.”
2. Selected data – I focus only on their tone and facial expression.
3. Interpreted meaning – I decide this means disapproval.
4. Assumptions – I assume they think I’m not strategic.
5. Conclusions – I believe I’ve failed to make an impact.
6. Beliefs – I decide I should avoid pitching ideas in this space.
7. Actions – I don’t follow up, and the idea fades.

Argyris showed that we do this constantly and usually don’t notice it.

The higher we move in our careers, the more dangerous this becomes, because our conclusions get institutional weight.

Why does this matter in leadership?

You’re probably not pushing pixels or flows all day anymore.

You’re building ideas, navigating ambiguity, and guiding decisions across disciplines.

That means:

• You interpret signals quickly
• You make a lot of meaning with very little data
• Your assumptions get magnified through meetings, strategy decks, and roadmaps

And if you’re not careful, you start treating your interpretations as facts.

That’s why suspended judgment isn’t just a nice facilitation trick.

It’s a survival skill for collaborative leadership.

Suspended Judgment

The pause that changes everything

Suspended judgment doesn’t mean being passive.

It means not reacting based on an unverified story.

It’s the moment between input and output where you:

• Notice your internal narrative
• Pause before turning it into action
• Create space for another possibility

It’s how you stop mistaking a hunch for a signal. It’s what helps you lead with presence instead of defensiveness.

The Assumption Olympics

(AKA my inner monologue)

Sometimes, I think my brain is training for a gold medal in jumping to conclusions. Here are a few recurring events:
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🥇 Overanalysis Freestyle

Reframe: “People might be busy. Or maybe the doc isn't clear. I’ll ask.”
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🥈 Cross-functional Mind Reading

Reframe: “What questions or concerns do you have about this direction?”
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🥉 Pattern Projection Sprints

Reframe: “Am I reacting to this moment, or a past pattern?”

These moments feel like logic.

But they’re mostly fast assumptions built on partial inputs.

How to interrupt the climb

Next time your brain starts scripting a story, try this:

1. What did I actually observe?
2. What meaning am I adding to it?
3. What assumptions am I making?
4. What else could be true?
5. What question could I ask instead of reacting?

It’s not a full diagnosis.

It’s just enough to pause the reaction and give curiosity a chance.

Try this in your next tough conversation:

That’s suspended judgment in action.

It’s a quiet kind of power.

And it makes you a much better leader.

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Until next time!

Hannah Baker ​Facilitator & Co-Founder ​The Fountain Institute ​

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